Today's Steel Industry News

## Industry Production Dynamics: Output Grows Quarter-on-Quarter, While Inventory Pressure Emerges

In early September 2025, key statistical data showed that major steel enterprises achieved an average daily crude steel production of 2.087 million tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 7.2%. Meanwhile, pig iron and steel product outputs also rose by 3.8% and dipped by 8.5%, respectively, on a monthly basis. These figures highlight steelmakers' proactive efforts to ramp up production at the start of the traditional "Golden September" peak season. However, steel inventories climbed by 5.6% from the previous month, reaching 15.82 million tons—a sign that demand remains weak and struggles to keep pace with supply. Industry analysts note that while steel demand from manufacturing sectors like automotive and home appliances has seen some boost thanks to the "trade-in" policy, slower growth in infrastructure investment has led to a buildup of construction steel inventories. As a result, several steel companies have already begun adjusting their production schedules to better manage inventory pressures.

From a regional market perspective, the North China region saw the largest increase in rebar inventories, while East China maintained stable hot-rolled coil stocks, supported by robust export orders. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, most steel prices in the national circulation market rebounded in mid-September. Specifically, rebar prices rose 0.3% from the previous month to 3,184.1 yuan per ton, and hot-rolled coil prices climbed 0.6% to 3,428.8 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, seamless steel pipe prices edged down slightly by just 0.01%, reflecting strong resilience in market demand for high-end plate products.

## Policy-Driven Transformation: Expanding Carbon Markets and Ultra-Low Emission Upgrades Proceed in Parallel

In 2025, policies for the steel industry will enter a period of intensive implementation. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has included the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries in the national carbon emissions trading market, covering more than 60% of China's total CO₂ emissions. This move directly encourages steel companies to accelerate their development of low-carbon technologies—such as Hebei Iron and Steel Group’s hydrogen-based direct reduction iron project currently under construction in Tangshan. By replacing coke with green hydrogen, the project aims to reduce energy consumption per ton of steel by 40%. Once operational, the project is expected to cut carbon emissions by 1.2 million tons annually.

Meanwhile, the "Normative Conditions for the Iron and Steel Industry (2025 Edition)" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly mandates that full-process ultra-low emission upgrades be completed by 2026, with key process energy efficiency reaching benchmark levels by the end of 2025. Currently, 206 steel enterprises across the country have already publicly announced their successful completion of ultra-low emission renovations, yet nearly 30% of long-process steelmakers still face pressure to upgrade their technologies. To address raw material supply challenges, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has approved the free import of recycled steel materials meeting stringent quality standards, tightening the inclusion criteria for non-metallic inclusions to 1.5%. This move is expected to stabilize the supply of scrap steel for short-process electric arc furnace steelmaking, paving the way for electric arc furnace steel production to rise from the current 10% to an anticipated 15% share by 2025.

## Technological Innovation Breakthrough: Smart Factories and Hydrogen-Based Metallurgy Lead the Transformation

In the wave of digital transformation, 36 outstanding smart factories have emerged in the steel industry. Take Jinan Steel as an example—its intelligent steelmaking control system leverages 5G + AI technologies to digitize the entire production process, achieving a 92% accuracy rate in equipment failure prediction and reducing annual maintenance costs by 40 million yuan. Huawei’s “ACT Three-Step Approach” (Automation, Digitalization, and Intelligentization) is being rolled out across leading enterprises such as Baowu Group and Shougang Group. By 2026, the industry’s smart manufacturing coverage is expected to reach 40%.

Hydrogen-based metallurgy technology has emerged as a key breakthrough for emissions reduction. According to forecasts from the China Research and Development Institute of Industry, by 2030, hydrogen-based direct reduction iron capacity is expected to account for more than 15% of total production. In Germany, a multinational steel company’s hydrogen-based electric furnace project has already achieved stable operations, with operating costs per ton of steel reduced by 23% compared to conventional processes. Domestically, Baogang Shares’ CSP production line at its thin-plate plant has successfully rolled products with ultra-thick specifications, while Tai Steel Group’s development of 750 MPa-grade ultra-high-strength silicon steel has broken foreign monopolies, marking significant progress for China in the field of high-end specialty steel materials.

## The Global Trade Landscape: Tariff Battles and Export Structure Adjustments

Global trade protectionism continues to intensify, as the U.S. has raised its tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, causing China’s direct exports to the U.S. to decline by 0.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, re-export trade through countries like Vietnam and Mexico has suffered a severe blow. The implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has further squeezed profit margins, with internationally certified low-carbon steel commanding a premium of 8% to 12% in EU markets. To tackle these challenges, HBIS Group has signed a cooperation memorandum with AHQ Group to build short-process steel plants in Southeast Asia, establishing a globalized operational model that combines "domestic R&D with overseas production."

The structure of China's export products has also undergone significant changes. In the first eight months of 2025, China's exports of high-end automotive steel increased by 22% year-on-year, while the share of high-value-added products such as electrical steel and wind-turbine steel rose to 35%. Meanwhile, Liansteel successfully rolled off its first batch of non-oriented "hand-tearable steel" tailored for new energy applications, marking China's achievement of an internationally leading position in the production of ultra-thin steel sheets measuring just 0.1 mm—or even thinner—providing crucial material support for manufacturing motors used in next-generation electric vehicles.

## Future Trend Analysis: Green Intelligent Manufacturing Reshapes the Industrial Ecosystem

The "2025-2030 Edition Steel Project Business Plan," released by the China Academy of Sciences & Technology for Industry Research, highlights that by 2030, China's steel industry will exhibit three key characteristics: green products will account for over 35%, smart manufacturing will achieve a coverage rate of 60%, and industry concentration, as measured by the CR10 index, will surpass 55%. Amid this transformative shift, steel companies are transitioning their business models—from simply "selling steel" to offering "integrated services." For instance, Nangang Shares has enhanced customer loyalty by providing comprehensive services such as advanced steel processing, logistics distribution, and carbon asset management, boosting customer retention to 2.3 times the level seen in traditional business models.

As policies such as the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and China's ultra-low emission upgrades continue to advance, the steel industry is undergoing a profound transformation—from "scale economy" to "efficiency economy." In this unprecedented shift occurring over the past century, only companies that proactively embrace green, intelligent manufacturing will be able to secure their future in this ruthless competitive landscape.